Aloha!
According to the renowned financial historian, ChatGPT, the month of September is historically the worst month across all financial markets. The Dow Jones averages a -0.7% return during the month going back to 1992.* All other averages also have negative average returns over the same period.* Add to that the vitriol of the upcoming mid-term election and the markets in a word are volatile! However, another financial pundit, Microsoft Co-Pilot, reports that markets generally rally after elections with November consistently ranking as the “best month” for the stock market.* Yes, artificial intelligence is good at synthesizing facts and figures, but I wouldn’t place all my hopes in AI. My opinion: the US economy is strong, and corporate earnings are trending upwards. I am bullish on the future of our markets; especially once there is a “resolution” in the middle east – Lord willing.
September 2026 is also turning out to be a somber month for losses. OK, so Dolly Parton actually passed on August 25th, but I’d like to remember her today. She is a true inspiration. Talented, generous, a mentor, devoted wife and servant to her faith. Another woman who changed the world for the better was Gloria Steinem. Founder of Ms. Magazine she was a leader in the “second wave” of women’s liberation (the first being the suffrage movement). Her influence is exemplified by the women she inspired to settle for nothing less than equality – and her challenges to advance women’s equality will carry on. This month also marks the 25th remembrance of the 9/11 terror attacks in NYC and Washington DC. I lost good friends when the North Tower collapsed with 658 associates of Cantor Fitzgerald. The firm’s CEO Howard Lutnick rebuilt the Cantor Fitzgerald and now serves as Secretary of Commerce.
Finally (I hope), my prayers are with the people of South Hawaii Island (Pahala, Na’alehu, Ka’u, Wai’ohinu) who bore the brunt of Hurricane Lala AND the peoples of Kauai and Ni’ihau who most recently endured Hurricane Lowell. IF there is a silver lining to these tragedies it is that it is bringing our community together, as it always does. Hawai’i no ka oi!
For all of these people, their families and communities, I ask for your prayers and support. If you would like to show more tangible support for Kauai, Ni’ihau and Hawaii island, consider making a donation to the American Red Cross, Disaster Relief efforts in Hawaii or the Hawai‘i Community Foundation’s Stronger Hawai'i Fund.
Best wishes to all.
Colin
*Source: Stock Trader's Almanac (Jeffrey Hirsch)
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